Russia’s ‘second front’

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Russia’s ‘second front’’

Marc Filippino
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Tuesday, February 21st, and this is your FT News Briefing.

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Today as part of our week-long coverage of the war in Ukraine, we’ll look at how the conflict has reshaped Europe’s diplomatic ties with Russia.

Henry Foy
And there is not a single voice, with the exception of perhaps Hungary, saying that there should be outreach now to Putin.

Marc Filippino
And while the world focuses on Ukraine, Moscow is quietly building support in Africa.

David Pilling
It’s just an easy way of destabilising the west, of making trouble. It’s easy to make new friends and to get votes at the UN.

Marc Filippino
I’m Marc Filippino and here’s the news you need to start your day.

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Consumer confidence in the eurozone is on the up and up. The European Commission says the latest flash estimate of its consumer confidence indicator rose for the fifth consecutive month. It reflects optimism that the eurozone may only suffer a mild recession despite the energy crisis. This not so cold winter has also lessened fears of energy shortages, and European wholesale gas prices have fallen to their lowest level since before Russia invaded Ukraine. But the latest consumer confidence numbers still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

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Moscow’s plans to invade Ukraine weren’t really a secret, but it was still a shock when Russian troops actually crossed the border and began the war. It shattered illusions, at least in Brussels, that Russian president Vladimir Putin is someone that the European Union could work with. As for Europe’s current diplomatic strategy towards Moscow, the FT’s Henry Foy says there is none.

Henry Foy
That is a painful shift for a lot of people here in Brussels who for years had advocated for outreach, that had advocated for yes, confrontation with Russia. Yes, some kind of sanctions and ways in which we didn’t like what Russia was doing internally, most notably its suppression of civil rights groups and freedom of speech. But after the war began, the voices that were calling for outreach with Russia completely disappeared. Diplomatic ties have been scaled down, not just at an EU level, but across member states. And there is not a single voice, with the exception of perhaps Hungary, saying that there should be outreach now to Putin, to Moscow, to try to bring them on to some form of peace talks that don’t involve the Ukrainians. It’s sort of Europe realising the folly of its ways before, Europe realising that Putin was not someone you could trust, Putin was not someone you could negotiate with. And if you did, and if you made, you got pledges or promises from him, he would break them.

Marc Filippino
Henry, a big part of Europe’s response to Moscow has been unprecedented financial and economic sanctions. Is the approach working, though?

Henry Foy
So one of the big problems with economic sanctions, of course, is that they take time to really feed through into the larger economy. It is obvious on a micro level; the sanctions are having an impact in certain areas. Russia’s car industry effectively fell off a cliff. Almost all of its big banks are now cut off from global finance. In effect, the sort of business elite can’t function in Russia anymore. However, on a macro level, the sanctions have had less of an impact than perhaps the more hawkish members of the EU would have wanted. Russia’s economy is still in pretty decent shape. It will grow this year, according to the IMF, which Britain’s economy, for example, will not do according to those same forecasts. And many people are saying, well, we might just be in a situation now where these sanctions have to be in place for a generation and you have a slow isolation of Russia as a global economy.

Marc Filippino
Where does Europe or diplomats in Brussels, I guess, where do they go from here?

Henry Foy
I think the biggest takeaway from the war so far at least has to look into the future is that Ukraine is now undeniably a European state. It’s a candidate member for the EU. Relations with Russia are the real elephant in the room. When leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron recently remarked that we can’t talk about a future relationship with Ukraine without talking about one with Russia, they normally are vilified by hawkish states and supporters of Ukraine. But it is sort of the taboo that needs to be broken at some point that Russia isn’t going anywhere. When this war is over, Moscow is still going to be next to Europe. So how Europe works out that postwar security relationship with Russia is crucial. Russia is still going to be the world’s second largest nuclear power. So a lot of these agreements that we had in place before the war that have fallen apart now are gonna have to be revisited, and Europe is gonna have to with a stronger foreign policy, with a more robust and more aggressive defence set up, work out how it and Russia coexists in a post-Ukraine war framework.

Marc Filippino
Henry Foy is the FT’s European diplomatic correspondent. Thanks, Henry.

Henry Foy
Thank you so much.

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Marc Filippino
Ukraine isn’t the only place Russia wants to dominate. Moscow has been waging an influence campaign in Africa. It’s building influence on the continent using propaganda, weapons sales and mercenaries. Our Africa editor David Pilling was recently in the Central African Republic to find out more and he joins me now. Hey, David.

David Pilling
Hello. How’s it going?

Marc Filippino
I’m doing all right. So I got to ask, why did you go to the Central African Republic for this story?

David Pilling
Well, Central African Republic is perhaps the prime example of what one top French official called a client state of Moscow. It’s almost an afterthought when one thinks about strategic parts of Africa, and yet there it is, sitting where north Africa meets sub-Saharan Africa. A kind of a wedge state, very, very weak. But with very little money, with very little investment, Russia has been able, in effect, to capture that state and to use it as a base from which to seek to capture other states along the whole sort of strip across the Sahel.

Marc Filippino
Is there an anecdote or I guess something that comes to mind that illustrates Russia’s influence there?

David Pilling
Well, we started our piece with a scene from a church where the monsignor has become part of the Russian Orthodox Church. He went on a paid for trip to Moscow and now very much sings from the Russian playbook that the French have been a disaster in Africa. And you have here a senior church official in a school where kids are being taught simple Russian, holding up blackboards, saying spasibo and do svidaniya. And a church official singing the praises of Russia’s influence in the country, which includes mercenaries who have taken over gold and diamond mines, fighting with rebels under rules that might not be internationally accepted where civilians can often be casualties.

Marc Filippino
So we’re talking about the Wagner Group, right? This is the Moscow-linked paramilitary group that’s been fighting with Russia against Ukrainian troops.

David Pilling
Yes. The interesting thing, of course, is that now the Wagner Group has come to prominence because of its role in the Ukraine. But people who’ve been following the story on the African continent have heard all about Wagner, because Wagner has been present not only in the Central African Republic, but in Sudan, briefly in Mozambique, in Mali, possibly now in Burkina Faso, all weak states like the Central African Republic. All states that have a degree of insecurity and where Russian mercenaries have been hired by governments to fight those insurgents, sometimes with certain degrees of success. And sometimes, as in Mozambique, where Wagner got beaten and driven out very quickly with total failure.

Marc Filippino
I’m curious, David, why is Russia so interested in Africa right now?

David Pilling
They think like China. They’ve sort of spotted an opportunity. You know, as the west has failed to have the positive impact that many African governments, many of whom, of course, were former colonised powers, as that kind of vacuum has developed, Russia, as well as China, has seen an opportunity where, as I say, for very little investment, they can have an outsized sort of influence, they can cause trouble for the west. They can open what one French official called a second front in Africa. I think partly it’s just an easy way of destabilising the west, of making trouble. It’s easy to make new friends and to get votes at the UN. There are resources to be had. And again, I can’t stress enough this kind of cut-price strategy can bear quite big dividends.

Marc Filippino
David, is Russia’s influence doing anything to improve some of these African countries?

David Pilling
I would argue not at all. With China, I have quite a different attitude. China is often vilified, but I think that Chinese influence does much good as well as some harm on the continent. With Russia, I struggle to find the positives. You know, Russia sells arms, it sends mercenaries, it extracts gold, often without paying any taxes. It supports authoritarian governments. I struggle to see this as in any way as having a positive impact on any of the countries in which it’s heavily involved.

Marc Filippino
David Pilling is the FT’s Africa editor. Thank you, David.

David Pilling
Thank you very much.

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Marc Filippino
As part of the ongoing series about the anniversary of the war in Ukraine, tomorrow, we’ll hear from the FT’s Europe editor, Ben Hall, on Ukraine’s economy.

Ben Hall
Ukraine was one of the poorest, is one of the poorest countries in Europe with a largely Soviet legacy economic structure.

Marc Filippino
We’ll talk about how Kyiv and the international community are keeping this already fragile economy afloat throughout the war. You’ll hear Ben in conversation with Behind the Money host Michela Tindera with highlights from an upcoming podcast episode.

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You can read more on all of these stories at FT.com. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Make sure you check back tomorrow for the latest business news.

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